日本行政指導的政治經濟分析

The Political Economy Analysis of Japanese Administrational Guidance

蔡增家(Zheng-Jia Tsai)

政治學報;45期 (2008/06) P1 – 26

關鍵字:日本, 行政指導, 企業配合, 泡沫經濟, 官僚主導 , administrational guidance, bubble economy , informal institution, administrational reform , Japan

中文摘要

本文主要針對日本行政指導的定義、性質、管制方式及其在自由化之後的轉變做有系統的分析。在二次大戰之後,日本經濟之所以能夠快速成長,其主要原因便在於官僚主導與企業配合,日本官僚主導經濟政策的方式便是透過對企業的行政指導,但是在1990年泡沫經濟破滅之後,日本經濟卻歷經戰後最長時間的不景氣,一直到最近幾年才有復甦的跡象。而阻礙日本經濟復甦最主要的因素便在於行政指導所形成的一系列非正式制度性網絡,那麼本文不禁要問:為何行政指導在過去是日本經濟成長的推手,在自由化之後卻成為阻礙經濟成長的最大絆腳石呢?本文主要論點認為,自由化是降低日本行政指導效能的最主要因素,它不但瓦解傳統政界、官界與財界的鐵三角關係,同時也改變過去政府主導的模式。本文主要區分成三個部分,首先是要探討行政指導的意涵,接下來將從政治與經濟兩個層面對戰後日本行政指導進行深入的分析,最後則是分析自由化對日本行政指導的轉變及影響。

英文摘要:

The goal of this paper is to explore the roots of Japanese economic recession in the 1990s from the administrational guidance. It is the primary informal institution in Japan. In the past, it is from international dimension or domestic dimension to analysis the Japanese economic recession in the 1990s. There are focus on the formal institution, for example, political reform, fiscal reform, administrational reform and financial reform. And there are neglect of the change of informal institution. The argument of this paper is that Japan has reformed formal institution in the past 15 years, but the informal institution still was existed. It is the primary reason that Japanese economic recession in the 1990s. This paper will be hold the Administrational Guidance to verify of my argument.

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中國大陸企業所得稅制改革的政治經濟意涵

The Reforms of Enterprise Income Tax in China: The Denotation of Political Economy

張敏蕾(Ming-Lei Chang)

政治學報;45期 (2008/06) P27 – 66

關鍵字:外商投資企業和外國企業所得稅法, 有效稅率, 企業所得稅暫行條例, 政治成本假說, 租稅改革, Effective tax rates, Enterprise income Tax Provisional Regulations , Foreign Investment Enterprises and Foreign Enterprises Income Tax Law , Tax Reform, Political cost hypothesis

中文摘要

本研究主要目的在比較中國大陸現行《企業所得稅暫行條例》與《外商投資企業和外國企業所得稅法》,透過實證資料證實兩種不同的企業所得稅在平均有效稅率的差異;據此分析兩種所得稅法在租稅規範、優惠與減免上的異同;並藉以說明中國大陸即將採行的新制企業所得稅制,其改革背後的政治與經濟意涵。不同於以往研究僅就所得稅法規做比較;本研究進一步配合上市公司所得稅資料,分析上市企業的內、外資企業其所得稅稅負差異產生的原因,藉以釐清兩稅制在實際施行時,影響企業租稅負擔的因素。研究結果顯示,適用《外資企業所得稅法》的企業,平均有效稅率為8.62%;而適用《內資企業所得稅法》者,平均有效稅率為17.34%;後者的平均有效稅率顯著高於前者;同時,迴歸分析亦證實,適用《內資企業所得稅法》的企業,其平均有效稅率顯著較高。對適用《內資企業所得稅法》者,企業規模、資本密集度、期末存貨額與企業槓桿呈顯著正向關係;而長期投資額、有控制力的分支機構數及資產報酬成長率則呈顯著反向關係。至於適用《外資企業所得稅法》者,規模與資本密集度呈顯著正向關係;長期投資、企業槓桿則呈顯著反向關係。

英文摘要:

This paper intends to compare ”Enterprise Income Tax Provisional Regulations” and ”Foreign Investment Enterprises and Foreign Enterprises Income Tax Law,” employing empirical data to identify the differences in average effective tax rates (ETRs) under two kinds of enterprise tax regulations and to analyze tax regulations, favor measures and deductions in the tax regulations mentioned above. Also, I intend to explain the background and meanings of the enterprise income tax reform from the view point of political economy. What distinguishes this paper from traditions approaches, which mainly focus on comparing income tax regulations is that it bases on actual income tax data of listed companies and analyzes the causes of differences in the income tax burdens between domestic and foreign capital listed companies in order to find out how implementation and practices of those two tax regulations affect enterprises' tax burdens. This paper concludes that the average ETR of companies that apply foreign investment enterprise is 8.62% and that of companies that apply domestic-capital enterprise is 17.34%; the later is significant higher than the former. The regression analysis also concurs with the finding that the average ETR of companies that apply domestic capital enterprise is significantly higher. For companies that apply domestic capital enterprise tax law, the size of enterprise, density of capital, ending inventory and leverage have significant positive correlations and the amount of long-term investment, the number of controlled branches and the growth rates of asset returns have negative correlations. For companies that apply foreign investment enterprise tax law, size and the density of capital have significant positive correlations; amount of long-term investment and leverage have significant negative correlations.

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反貪倒扁運動的支持度之多層次貝式定理分析

Multi-level Bayesian Analysis of the Supporting Rate of the Anti-Chen Rally

蔡佳泓(Chia-Hung Tsai)

政治學報;45期 (2008/06) P67 – 93

關鍵字:反貪倒扁運動, 貝式定理分析, 階層模型, anti-chen rally , bayesian statistics , multi-Ievel analysis

中文摘要

過去政治學界忽略了新興民主化國家中常見的政治社會運動,而反貪倒扁運動是一個很好的案例。本研究以一種巨視的角度,來觀察該運動所反映出的民意。過去的研究指出,南部民眾對於民進黨的支持較為穩定,而且此次反貪倒扁運動在台北地區反應熱烈,在南部地區則是出現民眾與該運動成員衝突的現象。因此,反貪倒扁似乎是一個侷限在北部地區的訴求。由於貝式估計允許研究者使用各種資訊以改善估計,因此本研究依據時間點將資料劃分為兩部分,經過WinBUGS分析得到第一個時間點的估計,投入做為事前資訊以估計第二部分的參數。本研究發現,不同區域對於支持倒扁運動的確有不同程度的差異。再以各地的台灣人認同與泛綠陣營支持者人數做為更新各地支持倒扁運動程度的資訊,發現兩者並無顯著影響,參數估計則顯示大台北、北縣基隆、桃竹苗及宜花東等地區支持該運動的程度較高。

英文摘要:

In June, 2006, the prosecutors began investigating President Chen's use of the special fund. Shih Ming-teh, the former chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), urged the president to step down for his alleged involvement in the corruption scandal. Shih then initiated a campaign to oust President Chen Shui-bian. At the beginning, the anti-Chen rally was held on Ketagalan Boulevard, Taipei City. It extended to the rest of country in a month. The extent to which people supporting the anti-Chen campaign in each area is a good case study of the mass movement, which is recently overlooked by political scientists. Using the multi-level Bayesian analysis, this research assesses the supporting rate of the anti-Chen rally in each of the seven regions in several ways. It is concluded that the northern Taiwan indeed lent more support to the anti-Chen movement more than the other regions did.

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地緣因素與新現實主義-以冷戰後中美地緣競逐為例

Geopolitical Factors and Neorealism: A Case Study of US-China Geopolitical Competition after the Cold War

張登及(Teng-Chi Chang)

政治學報;45期 (2008/06) P95 – 137

關鍵字:新現實主義, 地緣政治 , 國際關係理論 , 離岸平衡手, 中美關係, neorealism , geopolitics, international relations theory , off-shore balancer , US-China relations

中文摘要

K. WaItz在1970年代末創建的新現實主義(neorealism),由於推論嚴謹簡明,被認為是國際關係理論的一大突破。而J. Mearsheimer則自1990年代初起成為新現實主義主要命題的捍衛者。但Mearsheimer在推廣新現實主義時,為了解釋Waltz理論原型產生的一些異例,其實對新現實主義做了重要的補充與修正,這些修正的一個重要核心,就是地緣因素。Mearsheimer為新現實主義所新增的地緣因素文可以區分為三個變項:(1)地面力量的首要性;(2)海洋對國家軍力投射的阻礙;(3)國家共享邊界對戰略選擇的影響。透過這些更新,Mearsheimer進一步論證了陸權大國的攻勢傾向與海權大國保持「離岸平衡手」的合理性,這些新要素是Waltz理論原型所不具備的。本文將以冷戰結束之後(1990~2005年),美國與中國大陸在東北亞與中亞的地緣競逐為案例,探討新現實主義原型與Mearsheimer修正的有效性。同時,筆者透過上述討論,也對新現實主義發展的理論意涵提出若干反思。初步結論是:(1)地緣因素與單位層次(unit level)的其他因素直接有關,應視為是單位層次的變項;(2)因此Mearsheimer新增的地緣因素恐陷入Waltz所極力避免的「簡約理論」(reductionist theory),使新現實主義的簡潔優勢受到折損(3)Mearsheimer理論更新的有用性,叉可能顯示新現實主義基本假定內部的重要缺口,而將成為未來理論再調整的契機。

英文摘要:

It is now widely accepted that neorealism founded by Kenneth N. Waltz has dominated IR studies for the last 25 years due to its theoretical parsimoniousness and simplicity. After neorealism experienced various challenges from schools such as neoliberalism and post-mosernism in the 1980s, this theory regained its commanding highs by the revisions from both offensive and defensive realists in the 1990s. Among the new inputs into neorealism, the author will argue, John J. Mearsheimer's offensive version of neorealism is the most notable and compelling drive which has sharpened and advanced the exploration of the essence and strength of neorealism. What Mearsheimer has contributed are mainly geographic factors, which have no place in Waltz's prototype: the primacy of land power, the stopping power of large bodies of water, and the role of the ”off-shore balancer”.This research examines both Waltz and Mearsheimer's propositions against US-China geographic competitions surrounding China after the Cold War. The focus is located in Northeast Asia and Central Asia, where another two great powers are involving the game: Japan and Russia. The findings of this research, while partly confirmed Mearsheimer's predictions in Northeast Asia, provide a few anomalies which deserve further reflection. The author would argue that exceptions appear because Mearsheimer further naturalized and reified the neorealist model. In effect, Waltz has allowed the legitimacy of these exceptions by relaxing his positivist and determinist stance: a possible opening to a more classical IR approach advocated by Morgenthau and others, in which ”politics” can reclaim its place in political studies.

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中國大陸對全球暖化問題的因應-環境政治學的觀點

Global Warming Issues in China: The Perspective of Environmental Politics

施奕任(Yi-Jen Shih)

政治學報;45期 (2008/06) P139 – 164

關鍵字:中國大陸研究, 全球暖化, 京都議定書, 氣候變化綱要公約 , 環境政治學, global warming , China study , environmental politics , Kyoto Protocol , United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

中文摘要

隨著國際環境意識的崛起,環境問題也逐漸受到重視,環境議題甚至跳脫單純科學研究,而延伸到政治面向。環境問題涵蓋許多面向,全球暖化問題則是最重要的議題之一。在全球暖化問題中,中國大陸因為龐大的人口、高度經濟發展與其特殊的大國地位,使得中國大陸受到高度關注。本文從環境政治學的觀點,探討全球暖化是否對於中國大陸造成衝擊,而中國大陸面對國際氣候變化協商抱持的主張及策略。在研究的方法上,本文運用利益基礎(interest-based)的解釋模型,該模型包含生態脆弱性與防治汙染的經濟成本兩項標準,檢視中國大陸在全球暖化問題中的立場。同時,本文連結中國大陸在全球環境政治的思維,勾勒出中國大陸因應全球暖化的主張及政策變遷。中國大陸因應全球暖化問題有四項主張。首先,中國大陸重視環境主權的完整性;其次,強調本身是全球氣溫持續增加的受害國,已開發國家必須承擔大部分責任;第三,中國大陸當務之急仍是維持經濟發展;第四,中國大陸在複雜的全球氣候變化協商中,採取務實而低調的態度。本文認為中國大陸面對全球暖化問題時,採取的立場仍是朝向可持續性(sustainable)的方向發展。面對國內的生態脆弱性時,中國大陸雖然強調已開發國家的歷史責任,但是仍然透過各種政策減緩暖化;面對汙染防治成本時,務實地自認仍處於低度經濟發展的事實,並且善用國際資金與技術,以強化因應全球暖化的量能。

英文摘要:

As the rising of international ecological awareness, environmental issues is becoming more and more important nowadays and combating global warming is one of the most critical environmental issues. Most environmental issues involve not only science research, but also real politics. China becomes more important in global climate change negotiation because of three reasons. Firstly, China is the most populous country on earth, so the total amount of resource consumptions are also larger than countries. Secondly, due to high economic growth rate and low energy use efficiency, china has emitted a lot of greenhouse gases into the air. Most important of all, China is the substantial leader of developing countries. China's attitude toward climate change could deeply affect other important developing ones. Based on environmental politics perspective, this paper would discuss China's position in global warming challenges, and what are the China main responses in global climate change negotiation.This paper would use the concept of Sprinz and Vaahtoranta's interest-based explanation model to identify China's position in climate change issues. Furthermore, this paper would analyze China political context in international environmental affairs. These will help us illustrate the whole picture of China political standpoints in global warming and climate change.This paper thinks that China has four basic problems in global warming. First of all, China insists the completeness of environmental sovereign. Secondly, China was the victim country in global warming problems, and developed countries were main greenhouse gases emitting countries; so they should take the most part of responsibilities. Thirdly, China emphasizes that China is still a developing country and the priority of national development must focus on poverty reduction and economic growth. Fourthly, China would take pragmatic and low-keyed strategies to face complex global warming negotiations. In general, this paper would argue China's global warming strategies still have sustainability. In the ecological vulnerability criterion, although China emphasizes historical responsibilities of those development countries, China also adopts many policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In the abatement costs, although Chain recognize its low-level of economic development pragmatically, China would like to use developed countries finance aid and technologies transfer to intensify capacities of reducing greenhouse gases emission.

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