中國發展模式是否成為亞洲國家的學習對象?-一項東亞13國民眾的調查

Is China a Model for Asia? A Survey of Public Opinion in 13 East Asian States

楊喜慧(Shi-Huei Yang) ; 陳明通(Ming-Tong Chen)

政治學報;61期 (2016/06) P1 - 27

關鍵字:中國模式, 北京共識 , 華盛頓共識, 中國崛起, 中國威脅論 , The China Model , The Beijing Consensus , The Washington Consensus , China’s Rise , The China Threat Theory

中文摘要

東亞民眾是否認知到中國崛起?是否肯定中國崛起對亞洲帶來正面的影響?是否覺得中國模式是該國學習的對象?Min-Hun Huang與Yun-Han Chu的文章運用第三波「亞洲民主動態調查」(Asian barometer survey, ABS)的資料,僅回答前兩個問題,殊為可惜,本論文運用同一筆資料,繼續回答第三個問題。研究結果發現,包括中國在內的亞洲13國家與地區19,434位受訪民眾中,有7.7%受訪者認為「中國模式」可以作為該國未來發展學習的對象,相對於美國的23.1%,比率可謂不高。若以國家來看,沒有一個國家優先選擇「中國模式」,卻有菲律賓、柬埔寨、韓國、中國等四個國家的受訪者,選擇美國的比率高於任何國家。菲律賓、韓國選擇美國作為學習的對象不令人意外,但是連中國自己的民眾都偏好學習美國,顯示中國雖在亞洲崛起,但「中國模式」在亞洲並不具有吸引力,美國在此地區的「軟實力」仍屬第一。進一步運用「複層次非線性模型分析」發現,傾向「中國模式」的個體層次變項有:中國是亞洲最有影響力國家的認知、中國對亞洲的影響力是正面的、對中國有較高的民主評價等;但取向於自由民主價值的受訪者,卻不認同「中國模式」。在總體層次變項上,與中國地緣政治關係愈緊張,愈不傾向「中國模式」,顯示「中國威脅論」與地緣政治有關。

英文摘要:

Do East Asians recognize the rise of China? Do they welcome China's rise as beneficial for the Asia region? Do they believe their countries can learn from China's development model? Research by Min-Hua Huang and Yun-Han Chu uses data from the Asia Barometer Survey to examine the first two questions. This article applies the data to look at the third question. The research shows that of 19,434 respondents in 13 East Asian countries, 7.7% view China as a model for their countries future development, compared to 23.1% who identify the United States as a model. Aggregate data for each country in the survey shows that no country's public views China as a preferred model. Moreover, in the Philippines, Cambodia, South Korea and China, more respondents identify the US as a model than China. While it is not surprising that more Filipinos and South Koreans prefer America as a model, the fact that more Chinese view the United States as a model rather than their own country shows that despite China's rise, China's development model has limited appeal in Asia and the United States continues to lead the region in terms of "soft power." Multi-level non-linear model statistical analysis shows that with respect to individual-level variables, respondents who see China as a model tend to perceive China as the most influential country in Asia, view China's influence in Asia as positive, and have relatively more positive assessments of China's level of democracy. However, respondents oriented toward liberal democratic values do not identify with China as a model. At the macro-level, respondents from countries with tense geopolitical relations with China show less preference for China as a model, showing that perceptions of a China threat are influenced by geopolitics.

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國際規範的不完全擴散:以清日島嶼主權爭議中有效控制概念的學習成效為例

Incomplete Diffusion of International Norms: On the Effectiveness of Learning about the Concept of Effective Control in the Sovereignty Dispute over Islands between the Qing Empire and Japan

曾雅真(Yea-Jen Tseng)

政治學報;61期 (2016/06) P29 - 55

關鍵字:牡丹社, 東沙島, 規範擴散, 國際公法 , 有效控制 , Mudan Incident , Pratas Island , Norm Diffusion, Public International Law , Effective Control

中文摘要

西方國際社會所建構的國際公法於19世紀中葉傳入東亞諸國,繼受此種國家間相互規範的大清帝國與日本,透過不同的認識歷程,對國際公法產生不同的體認與實踐。本文試圖以國際公法之有效控制(effective control)概念,觀察19世紀與20世紀初葉,大清帝國與日本政府在臺灣牡丹社與東沙島主權歸屬交涉過程的認知表現,並據以檢驗國際規範擴散的過程與成效。本文發現,國際社會共享知識的建構過程,呈現國際規範被不完整傳播、學習與內化的樣貌;國家間的互動實踐,未必會型塑完美的觀念傳遞與內化效果。如果規範的擴散是一個被削減而非增益的過程,則國際社會共享知識的內容,可能並不如社會建構理論所意識的完整;而所謂的建構過程,它所塑造的內容,也未必是原始觀念傳播者所預期的想像。

英文摘要:

西方國際社會所建構的國際公法於19世紀中葉傳入東亞諸國,繼受此種國家間相互規範的大清帝國與日本,透過不同的認識歷程,對國際公法產生不同的體認與實踐。本文試圖以國際公法之有效控制(effective control)概念,觀察19世紀與20世紀初葉,大清帝國與日本政府在臺灣牡丹社與東沙島主權歸屬交涉過程的認知表現,並據以檢驗國際規範擴散的過程與成效。本文發現,國際社會共享知識的建構過程,呈現國際規範被不完整傳播、學習與內化的樣貌;國家間的互動實踐,未必會型塑完美的觀念傳遞與內化效果。如果規範的擴散是一個被削減而非增益的過程,則國際社會共享知識的內容,可能並不如社會建構理論所意識的完整;而所謂的建構過程,它所塑造的內容,也未必是原始觀念傳播者所預期的想像。

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選區分配與族群投票:從馬來西亞2013年國會大選評析馬國政黨輪替的瓶頸

Electoral System and Ethnic Voting: The 2013 Malaysian Elections and Afterwards

孫采薇(Tsai-Wei Sun)

政治學報;61期 (2016/06) P57 - 85

關鍵字:馬來西亞, 國民陣線(國陣), 人民聯盟(民聯), 族群投票 , 選區分配不均 , Malaysia , Barisan National (BN), Pakatan Rakyat (PR) , Ethnic Voting, Malapportionment

中文摘要

在2013年5月馬來西亞所舉行的第13屆全國大選中,執政的「國陣」政府僅得到46.7%的選民支持,創下執政聯盟自1959年以來的最難堪紀錄,但卻在國會222席中取得133席(占總席次59.9%),而得以繼續執政。族群認同、族群政黨、族群的選舉競爭與菁英共治,向來是馬來西亞政治的最大特徵,甚至其為人所詬病的選區分配制度沿革與數次選區疆界重劃,也有濃厚的族群考量。本文主要依據馬來西亞《星洲日報》在2013年第13屆國會大選過後所提 供之222個國會選區的選舉人數、各族群所占比例、以及選舉結果等原始資料,逐一登錄與整理,藉此觀察馬國此屆大選所顯現的制度與族群因素,並初步評析馬國反對陣營欲進一步挑戰「國陣」威權、並以政黨輪替作為引領該國進一步政治民主化契機所面臨的瓶頸。

英文摘要:

Malaysia’s thirteenth general elections, held on 5 May 2013, made a stunning blow to the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) regime. Although BN won 59.9% of the parliament seats and continued to rule the government, it gained only 46.7% of popular votes -- the worst record in the country’s political history. This article uses electoral and demographic data to test two important factors for these outcomes: electoral system and ethnic politics. Evidence shows that the malapportionment and the trend of ethnic voting during elections have always been, and will continue to be, the main obstacles for the opposition camp to overthrow the BN government and to move Malaysia toward a real democratic transition.

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災難治政:2014年高雄石化氣爆後的尺度政治與不均地理發展

Disaster Politics: Politics of Scale and Uneven Geographical Development after the 2014 Kaohsiung Petrochemical Explosion

王文誠(Wen-Cheng Wang)

政治學報;61期 (2016/06) P87 - 113

關鍵字:尺度政治, 尺度移轉, 不均地理發展 , 高雄氣爆, 災難政治 , Politics of Scale, Scale Shift , Uneven Geographical Development , Kaohsiung Gas Explosion , Disaster Politics

中文摘要

2014年7月31日深夜,高雄市發生嚴重的地下石化管線氣爆事件,面對諸多批評,為什麼「這一爆」非但不像陳菊市長自己所說的「政治生涯結束」,反而在發生如此重大意外災難後,弔詭地成就她個人民意支持度的高峰?為了回答這個問題,本文試圖從災難政治學出發,就尺度政治的「施為」及不均地理發展之「結構」視角,建構一個「結構化歷程」的分析架構。研究發現,地方政府運用尺度移轉、尺度跳躍、及再尺度化等「尺度政治」策略動員的災難政治,成功地築起防火牆,避免掉政治責難,進而在政治地位上「鞏固現況」。再者,尺度政治所支持之社會背景,即臺灣經濟發展中「重南輕北」的不均地理發展結構,令地方政府在災難政治中得以強化權力。結論指出,不均地理發展是這次氣爆災難中,各級政府面對臺灣發展更需要重視的課題。

英文摘要:

On July 31, 2014, a series of serve gas explosions occurred at the center of Kaohsiung city. Despite public rebukes for the city government's poor performance of disaster management, the support to Mayor Chen, contrary to her own catastrophic expectation, remained strong. This study attempts to analyze the phenomenon from perspectives of disaster politics. A framework of structuration in which power is illustrated as an outcome of the interaction between the "agency" of politics of scale and the social "structure" of uneven geographic development is introduced. It is concluded that strategies of scale shifting, jumping and rescaling in politics of scale adopted by the city government to mobilize disaster politics have successfully built a firewall to avoid political culpability, and thus retained the political position of "accelerated status." Furthermore, Taiwan’s "north-south divide" on uneven geographical development might have constituted a structural social background to enhance the power of local government in disaster politics. This explosion disaster seems to suggest that "uneven geographical development" would be a more salient issue for the government to tackle for further economic development.

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