試論中美發動軍事衝突的要件:國家權力差距或不滿意

The Necessary Conditions for China and the U.S. to Initiate Militarized Conflicts: Power Gap or Dissatisfaction

廖小娟(Hsiao-chuan Liao)

政治學報;62期 (2016/12) P1 - 24

關鍵字:權力比 , 國家不滿意 , 發動軍事衝突 , 權力轉移理論 , 權力平衡理論, Power Gap , State Dissatisfaction, Conflict Initiation, Power Transition Theory, Balance-of-Power Theory

中文摘要

中國大陸的崛起不僅牽動東亞區域內權力重分配的態勢,也影響了全球各大國之間的互動。世界霸權─美國─如何處理與面對中國大陸的崛起和可能的爭霸,也暗示著另一次世界大戰的可能性。權力平衡理論認為只有國家間權力均衡,國際和平方能維持;權力轉移理論則提出當中國大陸的權力將要超越美國之時,中美軍事衝突亦會隨之發生,並且權力的分配雖提供了衝突發生的機會,發動軍事衝突則與國家對彼此的不滿意息息相關。本文藉由布林演算法比較中國大陸與美國在權力比、國家不滿意、地緣關係、政體、與最後發動軍事衝突間的關係,找出中國大陸與美國各自發動不同程度軍事衝突的要件。本文發現當中國大陸和美國與對手國綜合國力不相近時,更容易發動軍事衝突,尤其是綜合國力的優勢更是中國大陸發動軍事衝突的充分條件。而中國大陸發動戰爭時,除了與對手的聯盟組成不同,直接表達不滿意也是其戰爭的必要條件。另一方面,美國則是未持修正態度下,與對手聯盟組成不相似都是發動戰爭的必要條件,擁有核武則是其發動軍事衝突的充分條件。據此,本文支持權力平衡理論的看法,認為中美在優勢下較容易發動軍事衝突,同時印證聯盟的組成不相似和表達不滿意都是中美兩國可能發動軍事衝突的強烈信號。

英文摘要:

The rise of China has not only affected the power distribution in East Asia, but also influenced the interactions among major states. How the United States as the global hegemony deals with a rising China, and how the potential competition for dominance unfolds will dictate the likelihood of another major war. From the perspective of realism, the struggle for power among states is inevitable. The balance-of-power theory asserts that international peace results from the power balance among states, while the power transition theory argues that war happens when the gap among states' power shrinks. Furthermore, power distribution may provide only opportunities for conflict, but it is state dissatisfaction that actually triggers conflict. This article compares the impacts of power gap, state dissatisfaction together with other factors, such as geopolitics and regime, on the initiation by China and the U.S. of militarized conflicts. The comparison is methodologically based on Boolean algebra which induces the necessary conditions for them to initiate conflicts. The results show that China and the U.S. are more likely to initiate conflicts when their powers are not in parity with their opponents. In particular, power superiority is a sufficient condition for China to initiate conflicts. Dissimilarity of alliance portfolios and expression of direct dissatisfaction are two necessary conditions for China to wage wars. In contrast, the necessary conditions for war initiation by the U.S. are non-revisionism and dissimilarity of alliance portfolios. Equipping nuclear capability is sufficient for the U.S. to take militarized actions. These findings lend more support for the balance of- power theory than the power transition theory, in terms of war initiation. Moreover, the findings also demonstrate that dissimilarity of alliance portfolios and expressions of state dissatisfaction are both key to war initiation by China and the U.S.

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當前東亞戰略局勢的地緣觀察:以「一帶一路」為核心的思考

The Geostrategic Analysis of Recent Developments in East Asia: The OBOR as the Core

何燿光(Yao-Kuang Ho)

政治學報;62期 (2016/12) P25 - 51

關鍵字:一帶一路, 中國崛起 , 地緣戰略, 東亞, 權力轉換 , The One Belt One Road , China's Rise, East Asia , Power Conversion

中文摘要

2013 年9、10 月間,中國國家主席習近平利用訪問中亞四國與印尼的機會,分別提出建設「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「21 世紀海上絲綢之路」的構想。而這樣的戰略意圖到底是如同中國外長王毅所強調的「不是地緣工具……不能用冷戰思維看待」,亦或是如解放軍少將喬良所稱「是跟美國戰略東移的一次對沖」。事實上,中國崛起在國際認知上,從來就沒有一致的認知,是否將會因經濟實力的變遷,而衝擊當前國際秩序,原本就在不同學派認知的爭議中劇烈衝撞。攤開地緣戰略地圖,如此大規模的跨區域戰略布局,不可能僅止於經濟、貿易、通商等低位階的安排,而不去調動高位階的國際政治與權力結構關係。因此,如何觀察這樣一個戰略安排的本質,如何理解其中的權力轉換,如何思考崛起中國在歐亞世界島的權力位置,而如此龐大的跨區域整合、鉅額的投資需求,複雜的權力重組,將會帶來的是無限美好的發展藍圖,亦或是新一輪冷戰的再起,基本上都是本文所關切,而亟欲思考、解決的議題。透過戰略局勢的地緣觀察,筆者認為,地緣的本質不變性與變動性,恰正可以提供超越意識形態認知的一條思維途徑。

英文摘要:

The One Belt, One Road (OBOR) was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013. With a backdrop of China's rapid rise in recent years, the possible strategic vision and intention of this mega plan have been widely discussed. Nevertheless, from geostrategic perspective, it is hard for such a massive cross-regional policy initiative to move ahead without mobilizing the resources associated with international political and power relations. Thus, the strategic nature, the power dynamics in the region, and China's specific position of OBOR are the major concerns of this article. Will OBOR lead to a glorious future for the region's development or a resumption of new Cold War? This article suggests that the geospatial analysis of world politics that stresses both location immobility and geo-political variability could be an alternative to the ideological reading of OBOR.

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政官菁英對和平主義規範與建制的挑戰:日本2013年〈防衛計畫大綱〉制定與內容

Political-Bureaucratic Elites' Challenges to Norms and Institutions of Pacifism: The Making and Content of Japan's 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines

郭育仁(Yu-jen Kuo)

政治學報;62期 (2016/12) P53 - 77

關鍵字:日本防衛政策, 防衛計畫大綱 , 建構主義, 政官分工 , 現實主義 , Japan's Defense Policy, National Defense Program Guidelines, Constructivism, Labor of Division between Political and Bureaucratic Elites, Realism

中文摘要

建構主義認為規範與概念等非物質變因大幅約制戰後日本防衛政策的發展,並強調和平主義規範與建制是造成戰後日本經濟與軍事實力巨大落差,以及冷戰後仍傾向緩步調整防衛政策的主因。然而政治菁英(首相、內閣、執政黨)與官僚菁英(防衛省、外務省)的政策主動性,使得近年日本國防改革開始出現與建構主義預測不同的發展。安倍晉三內閣於2013 年12 月17日通過〈防衛計畫大綱〉,政策制定過程中,政官菁英緊密分工合作,主動運用外在安全威脅創設「國家安全保障會議」以強化首相決策權、漸進挑戰高敏感性的國防議題、以及藉和平主義之名進行國防改革之實等三大策略,順利突破戰後和平主義規範與政治建制對首相權力與防衛政策的約制,同時在政策制定模式與政策內容產生重大改變。出現戰後日本史上為因應周邊局勢改變,最具軍事操作性的國防文件。本文聚焦在三個主要議題:第一、2013年〈防衛計畫大綱〉制定過程中,政官菁英如何運用政策主動性挑戰和平主義規範與建制。第二、政官菁英扮演的政策功能、互動與分工架構,以及整體政策制定模式。第三、上述制定模式如何影響最後政策內容。

英文摘要:

Constructivism argues that nonmaterial factors such as norms and ideas have largely constrained the development of postwar Japan’s defense policy, and emphasizes that the Pacifism norms and institutions are the main causes for the huge gap between Japan’s economic and military powers, and for the incremental defense adjustments in the post-Cold War era. However, Japanese political elites' policy activism has led to the contradiction between Japan's defense reform in recent years and the theoretical prediction of constructivism. The Abe Cabinet released Japan's National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) on December 17, 2013. During the process, political (the prime minister, the cabinet, and ruling parties) and bureaucratic elites (foreign and defense ministries) utilized four major strategies in challenging the constraints from the norms and institutions of postwar Pacifism on prime ministers' power in defense reforms. The strategies include active propagation of external security threats in order to establish the National Security Council, better division of labor between the foreign and defense ministries, incremental challenge to the issues with high political sensitivities, and the resort to Pacifism in carrying out realistic defense reforms. These successful breakthroughs in the making of 2013 NDPG also resulted in the highest military operability defense document in postwar Japan in responding to the rapid changing security environment. This article will answer three major research questions: First, what are the strategies applied by the political-bureaucratic elites in actively challenging the constraints from the norms and institutions of postwar pacifism? Second, what are the political-bureaucratic elites' roles and functions in the making of 2013 NDPG, in terms of their policy interaction and division of labor? Third, what are the impacts of the aforementioned policymaking model on the final policy outcomes?

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倫理國家的開展:格林對古典自由主義的哲學改造及其民主實踐意涵

The Coming of Ethical State: Green's Philosophical Reformation of Classical Liberalism and Its Democratic Practice Implication

劉佳昊(Jia-Hau Liu)

政治學報;62期 (2016/12) P79 - 101

關鍵字:格林 , 自由主義, 民主實踐, 倫理國家, 道德完善, Green , Liberalism, Democratic Practice , Ethical State, Moral Perfection

中文摘要

本文旨在考察格林是如何從基督教神學的道德信條中,汲取西方民主實踐哲思的倫理內涵,以對19 世紀英國古典自由主義哲學的不足進行增補與改造之工作。關於格林的道德與政治思想對英國現代自由民主理論的發展帶來何種影響之研究,時常是從自由主義哲學的個體主義或集體主義思想立場著手解讀。但此類研究路徑,多有假定自由主義為單義,而把格林的思想主張安置在一個二元的思維框架內進行討論之傾向。不同於此傳統的解讀方式,本文將從格林對古典自由主義哲學的承繼與批判,以及他如何基於其批判,轉化基督教神學的道德實踐主張,進而開展出一套側重公民參與的倫理國家理論這兩方面著手,以指陳格林的思想論述是如何憑藉其獨特的國家概念,對其後英國知識分子的民主實踐活動帶來了深遠影響。

英文摘要:

This article aims to investigate how Green reformed the 19th-century classical liberalism philosophy by articulating the ethical and the democratic practice implication in Christian theological moral tenets. In the current studies concerning the impact of Green's moral and political thought on the development of British modern liberal democratic theory, the interpretations are commonly about the dualistic standing of liberal philosophy, individualism and collectivism. This approach, however, tends to assume that liberalism is unitary and confine the discussion on Green's philosophical thought to a dualistic framework. In contrast with that interpretive approach, the present article investigates Green's reformation of classical liberalism philosophy from two aspects: the intellectual connections between Green's philosophical thought and the classical liberalism philosophy, and how Green transformed and utilized Christian moral practical assertions to develop a theory of ethical state that emphasizes the significance of citizens' participation in democracy. Ultimately, this article argues that the impact of Green's philosophical thought on the democratic praxis of those British intellectuals after Green was derived from Green's unique conception of the state.

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