實質假設與假設檢定:理論建構上的一些問題

Substantive Hypothesis and Testing Hypothesis: Some Problems in Theory Construction

郭秋永

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P139-198

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
長久以來政治學中很多的爭議被置於許多標籤下,然而就本文作者看來,所有爭議擁有一個共同的焦點 —— 關於如何發現與檢定一些強調理論建構,且有意義的科學假設。事實上,政治學方法論需要回答的最重要問題是:如何才能形成有意義的假設及一個可客觀驗證之主觀意義架構?
為了強調我的論點,本文探討某些政治參與理論,作為實質假設形成、統計假設解釋、與顯著性檢定邏輯之範例。根據我們的討論,我們可以發現所謂的「古典」政治學理論並非過時的幻覺,而假設檢定在基礎研究被視為是以理論發展和驗證為導向之基礎政治學研究中的價值有限。

英文摘要:

A great deal of controversy within political science have a long history going under many labels, but in the author'opinion, all share a common focal point-the problem of how to discover and test some meaningfully scientific hypotheses and an objectively testable theory of subjective meaning-structure?

In order to emphasize my argument, this paper discusses some theories of political participation, which exemplify the formation of the substantive hypotheses, the transition of the statistical hypotheses and the logic of tests of significance. In light of our discussion, we can see that the so-called "classical"political theory are not an outmoded illusion and the testing hypotheses are of limited value in basic political science research, where basic research is identified as that which is directed toward the development and validation of theory.

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台灣地區中學生的政治態度——集群分析的應用

The Political Attitudes of Adolescents in Taiwan: An Application of Cluster Analysis

陳文俊

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P1-78

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
本文是台灣中學生政治態度之研究,主要有兩個目的。首先,我們希望回答有哪種類型政治態度存在這個問題。次之,我們關心不同類型的政治態度在多大程度上是不成比例地來自特定的社會群體。為了該兩項研究目的,本文使用全體平均法,及過度代表比例和低度代表比例。
如同資料所呈現,我們成功地將高比例(我們樣本中的98%)的中學生分為十大內部由頗相同特徵組成之類型,這和我們的預期頗為相符。此外,我們也估算了不同社會類屬在各個類型過度代表與低度代表的程度。
我們的分析為我們提供一個實用的政治態度類型學。我們相信相較於先前研究所呈現的,這些發現為一種對於台灣中學生更為完整的概況描述。

英文摘要:

This paper, a study of political attitudes of the middle school students in Taiwan, has two major purposes. Firstly, we want to answer the question of what types of political attitudes exist. Secondly, our concern is with extent to which different types of political attitudes come disprportionately from particular social groups. For these two purposes, Overall average linkage and the ratio of over-and underre presentation were used.

As the data presented, we were able successfully to categorize a largeproportion(98 percent of our sample)into ten types that were quite homogeneous internally and quite similar to our expectations. In addition, we also estimated the extent to which various social categories over-or underrepresented in each type.

Our analysis provides us with a useful typology of politicalsttitudes. These findings are, we believe, a more refined profile of the middle school students in Taiwan than has heretofore appeared.

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麥寮計畫之評估

Evaluation of Malliao Project

段重祺

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P79-102

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
本研究係關於社會變遷過程中的發展計畫。本文有兩個主要相互關聯的主題。第一個主題為發展計畫有政治、社會和經濟面向,其牽涉到結構與體制的變化以及增長。第二個主題為發展有規範性的概念,亦有實證的變遷過程。本研究主要的假設為成功的發展計畫會為人民帶來更為公平的機會分佈,以滿足實現人類潛力的必要條件。
問卷和田野研究在農漁牧綜合計畫被奠定以將稻米和蕃薯單種栽培轉為以市場導向增長策略為基礎之混合經濟的麥寮地區進行。受訪者為麥寮地區參與計畫及非參與計畫的農民。
在該計畫實施後,相較於沒有參與計畫的人,更多計畫參與者作出政府行動對於他們的生活至關重要的評價。相較於沒有參與計畫的人,更多計畫參與者對於生活條件的改善抱持較高度的期待。相較於沒有參與計畫的人,更少計畫參與者相信超自然的事物對於他們的活動有所影響。
大多數的農民,不論計劃參與者或非參與者,認同麥寮的改變是該計畫的結果。他們期待不久的將來會有所進步,並認為中央政府應該採取更多計畫。一旦改善的條件和政府計畫間的關係被認知到,提升的滿意度成為政治涉入之主要動機。
該綜合計畫成功影響麥寮土地的最有效運用。透過獲得更多的知識和技能,農民可以更加了解他們的問題之不同替代解決方案。貸款在非歧視性的基礎上被提供,土地被重新分配。該綜合計畫確實地促進進一步的平等、加速的增長,並且讓農民有更好的生活。

英文摘要:

This study is concerned with a development project in the process of social change. It has two major, related themes. The first is that a development project has political, social, and economic dimensions, which involve changes in structure and institutions as well as growth. The second is that development has a normative concept as well as an empirical process of change. The major hypothesis in this study is that a successful development project will lead to a more equitable distribution of opportunities among its people to fulfill the necessary conditions for the realization of human potential.

Survey and field study were conducted in Mailiao where the Integrated-Livestock –Crop-Fish-Project was instituted to change rice/sweet potato monoculture into a mixed economy based on a market-oriented growth strategy. The interviewees were participant and nonparticipant farmers in Mailiao.

After the exeution of the Project, more participants than nonparticipants evaluated the governmental actions as essential to their lives. More participants held higher expectations for improvements in their living conditions than did nonparticipants. Fewer participants than nonparticipants believed that the supernatural had an effect on their activities.

Most farmers, whether participants or nonparticipants, recognized that the changes in Mailiao were the results of the Project. They expected an improvement in the near future Project. They expected an improvement in the near future and believed that the national government programs was recognized.

The Intergrated Project succeeded in determining the most efficient uses for Mailiao soils. By acquiring greater knowledge and skill, the farmers could better understand the various alternative solutions to their problems. Loans were supplied on a non-discriminatory basis, and land was redistributed. The Intergrated Project, indeed, promorted greater equality, accelerated growth, and provided a better life for the farmers.

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多元分歧的社會與穩定的民主政治——馬來西亞之個案研究

Stable Democracy in a Plural Society: A case of Malaysia

謝復生

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P199-224

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
馬來西亞(前身為馬來亞)是一個多元分歧的社會,自從1955年首次國會選舉後,就定期舉辦普選。為了要減少內生於馬來西亞多元分歧社會中的潛在衝突,聯盟/國民陣線政府頗為成功地採取如大聯合政府形成及比例原則運用等衝突管理措施,儘管該等措施就非馬來人而言,並非如此公正。此外,馬來西亞政府也運用一些強制手段以確保社會安定。雖然運用這些強制手段在某些案例中是有效的,但其無疑有損馬來西亞民主的品質。

英文摘要:

Malaysia(formerly Malaya)is a plural society, the Alliance/National Front Government has quite successfully employed such conflict-regulating practices as the formation of grand coalitions and the and the application of the principle of proportionality, albeit not so impractical as far as the non-Malays are concerned. In condition, the Malaysian Government has also made use of some society. Although the use of such coercive methods has been effective in some cases, it doubtlessly hurts the quality of democracy in Malaysis.

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戰後中日關係的檢討與展望

An Enquiry and Prospection into Postwar Sino-Japanese Relatoions

王友仁

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P335-372

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
該論文由三大部分組成:
(1) 1952年至1972年之中日外交關係;
(2) 中日外交關係之破裂及自1972年起嶄新實質關係之奠定;
(3) 當代亞洲之轉型及未來中日關係之展望
首先,本文試圖探究1952年至1972年間正式中日外交關係之奠定與終止之過程。在本文第二部分,我們試圖探究美國政府如何玩弄所謂「中共牌」,造成中華民國和日本關係之破裂,以及隨後實質關係如何被建立和發展。
在點出未來中日關係走向時,我們已經探究了實際的與可能的亞洲不斷變化之情勢,例如:朝鮮半島的緊張關係;走向蘇聯之紅色中國策略性調整;美國在東北亞策略之重組;日本之重新軍事化與日本外交關係不斷變化的趨勢。
最後,我們試圖從以權力結構為基礎之國際政治理論論述:(1) 中日在所謂「海上航線」之策略性關係之存在,以及這對於我們未來政策決策之可能意涵;(2) 會影響未來中日關係之特定因素,例如所謂紅色中國的「四個現代化」。
在本文結論中,我們建議我國政府應該一方面持續推動成功之中日實質關係,另一方面應該(1) 確定兩個政府間關於台灣海峽共同策略之「共識」;(2) 積極尋求建立台灣海峽之共同安全體系,以及(3) 提高中日關係層級以避免我國遭到「孤立」。

英文摘要:

An Enquiry and Prospection into Postwar Sino-Japanese Relatoions

This dissertation is ocomposed of three parts:

(1)Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations form 1952 to 1972;
(2)rupture of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations and establishment of new substantive relations since1972;
(3)transformation of contemporary Asia and a prospection of future Sino-Japanese relations.

To start with, an attempt is made to inquire into the process of first the establishment and then the termination of formal Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations in the period from1952-1972. In the second part, we tried to find how the U.S. government, by playing the so-called“China Card”, brought about the rupture of relations between the ROC and Japan, and how, consequently, the substantive relations were built and developed.

In pointing out the orientation of the coming Sino-Japan relationship, we have inquired into the changing situation in Asia, both actual and possible, such as:the tension on the Korean peninsula; the strategical adaptation of Red China toward the U.S.S.A; the reformulation of U.S. strategy in Northeast Asia; the rearming of Japan and changing trends in Japanese foreign relations.

Finally, we have tried, form the theory of international politics based on power structures, to discourse:(1)the existence of Sino-Japanese strategical relations on the so-called “Sea Lanes”, and what this may mean to our coming policy decisions;(2)certain considerations which would influence coming Sino-Japanese relations, such as the socalled“Four modernizations of China”

In the conclusion, we suggest that our government should continue to promote thecucce

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開發中國家的政策執行理論:我國違規遊覽車的個案分析

Policy Implementation theory of Developing Countries: The Case Analysis of Ill-Legal Tour Bus in the Republic of China on Taiwan

柯三吉

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P281-334

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
本文透過整合已開發國家及開發中國家之政策執行理論,試圖分析禁止中山高速公路非法遊覽車營運之執行問題。本文理論架構之基礎概念為政策設計和執行之分離是危險的。因此,中村和斯摩伍德主張研究政策執行的有效方式為將政策過程視為一個系統。而政策過程系統是以一套相聯之政策元素為特徵—— 政策形成、政策執行,與政策評估。這些政策因素或者政策系絡由連結相互聯繫。根據該論點,下揭被認為是該研究之解釋變數:政策之內容和特質、政策行動者所採取的賽局行動、執行者握有之順服機制、及府際關係。
下揭為該研究之主要發現:
(1) 在該個案研究中,制定過程和禁止非法遊覽車行動方案影響了該行動方案之執行。
(2) 明確的政策目標並不保證可以成功執行該行動方案。執行者被動與不作為之態度為主要因素。
(3) 目標的團體的多元性、政策目標和曠日彌久為執行該行動方案之阻礙因素。
(4) 遊覽車所有人、台灣省客運公會聯合會、大眾媒體所採取的賽局行動造成資源分散、目標轉移、行政機關困境、及專案管理之能量耗損。
(5) 政府並未支持具建設性的資源(資訊、主管機構、經濟資源),而台灣省公路局的地位亦是非法的。因此,執行機構所使用的順服機制功能僅限於禁止非法遊覽車之營運。
(6) 執行機構間缺乏整合是該行動方案未能成功執行的最重要因素。

英文摘要:

This paper attempts to analyze implementation problems of banning the operation of ill-legal tour bus on Sun Yat-sen Freeway through synthesizing policy implementation theories for developed and developing countries. The basic concept for the theoretical framework is that the separation of the policy design from implementation is fatal. Thus, Nakamura and Smallwood argued that one useful way ti study policy implementation is to view policy process as a system. And a system of policy process is characterized by a set of interconnected policy elements-policy formation, policy implementnation and policy evaluation. These policy e;ements or policy contexts are linked by linlkage. Based on this argument, the following are recognize as explanatory variable for this study: content and characterisitics of policy, gaming action adopted by policy actors, compliance mechanism hold by implemeentors, and intergovermentnal relations.

The following are the major findings of this research:

(1)Formulative process and content of the ACTION PROGRAM FORBANNING ILL-LEGAL TOUR BUS affected the implementation of the Action Program in this case study.

(2)Clear policy objectives are not guarantee for successful implementing this Action Program. Passive and inaction attitudes of implementors are the main factors.

(3)Diversity of target groups, policy goals and long duration are impedimental factors for implementing the Action Program.

(4)Gaming actions which adopted by owners of tour bus, Bus Union Taiwan Provincial Assembly and mass media caused the diversion of resource, the deflection of goals, the dilemmas of administration, and the dissipation of energies in this case management.

(5)Government did not support positive resources(information. Authority, economic resources)and status of Burea of Highway of Taiwan Provincial Government were also illegal. Accordingly, functions of compliance mechanism used by implementation agency are limited to ban the operation of ill-legal tour bus.

(6)Lack of coordination among implementation agencies was the most important factor for not successfully implementing the Action Program.

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選民的投票取向:結構與類型的分析

Orientations of Voting: An Analysis of Structure and Patterns

胡佛、游盈隆

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P225-279

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
本研究是我們對台北選民在1980年立法委員選舉之部分觀察。由945位公民構成之樣本被隨機挑選,並依照結構式問卷對他們每一位進行封閉式訪談。作者的主要目的為,針對在如我們的政治系統中之政治發展下建構起的一套投票行為實證理論。作者假設投票取向可以被劃分為兩種基本種類或者類型:政治性的及非政治性的。前者以議題或者系統為取向,後者以候選人資格、社會關係和個人關係取向。在其概念架構下,政治取向得以不僅侷限於系統之功能性或輸出面向,亦即公共政策,而涵括兩項潛在要素:認同性的與結構性的。整體而言,本文作者進一步假設政治性的和非政治性的投票取向不一定是互斥的,而因此構成不同投票行為類型之正相關不同種類中所示,其在不同型態的組合中是相容的。基於這些假設,該研究得到下列主要發現:
1. 投票取向結構由二十四種取向構成,其中所佔比例最高的五個取向(樣本數為674位)為:(1) 議題(38.7%), (2) 候選人的成就(38.7%),(3)候選人的品德(24.4%),(4)候選人的學識(19.6%),及(5)黨派動員。就其重要性而言,最重要的前五項排名次序變為(樣本數為674位):(1) 議題(28.6%),(2) 候選人的成就(26.3%),(3)候選人的品德(13.1%),(4) 黨派動員(9.0%),及(5) 家庭宗族之要求。
2. 根據因素分析,這二十四種取向群集為五大因素或者歸類。它們分別被命名為 (1) 候選人資格, (2) 社會關係 ,(3) 議題與情感, (4) 從眾,以及 (5) 政黨。由第三項因素,我們可見議題導向被情感偏好綁在一起,這確實顯示政治爭議間日益緊張的關係。
3. 在前述五項因素中,候選人資格相當獨特,因為除了議題與情感外,其與其他因素成負相關。而候選人資格及議題與情感這兩個因素之組合是正相關的,所以這成為解釋台北市選民投票行為主要影響因素之最佳指標。社會關係及從眾兩項因素之正相關也是值得注意的,這亦顯示台北選民非政治取向之本質。

英文摘要:

This study is a part of our observation on the voting behavior on Taipei electorate in the 1980 legislatorial election. A sample of 945 citizens was randomly chosen and a close interview was given to each of them in accordance with close interview was given to each of them in accordance with a structured questionnaire. The major attempt of the authors was to construct an empirical theory of voting behavior in the light of the political development in such a political system as ours. The authors assumed that voting orientations can be divided into two basic categories or patterns: political and non-political; the former is issue-or system-oriented and the latter is oriented to candidate’s qualification, and social and personal relations. In their conceptual framework, the political orientation was permitted not merely to confine itself to its functional or output aspect of a system, that is, public policy, bit to cover two other underlying components: identificational and structural. To take it as a whole, the authors further assumed that the political and non-political orientations of voting are not necessarily mutual exclusive but inclusive in different formers of combination as shown in their positive correlations of different kinds, which, in turn, constitute different patterns of voting behavior. Based on these assuptions, this study obtains several major findings as follows:

1. The structure of voting orientations is constituted by 24 orientations, of which the top five are(n=674):(1)issue(38.7%),(2)candidate’s achievement(38.7%),(3)candidate’s virtue(24.4%),(4)candidate’s learning(19.6%)and(5)partisan mobilization. In terms of their importance, the rank order of the top five becomes(n=674):(1)issue(28.6%),(2)candidate’s achievement(26.3%), (3)candidate’s virtue(13.1%),(4)partisan mobilization(9.0%), and (5)request of the family clan(9.0%).

2. According to a factor analysis, the 24 orientations are clustered into five factors or groupings. They are then named respectively by: (1)candidate’s qualification, (2)social relations, (3)issue and emotion, (4)conformity, and (5)political party. From the third factor, we can see that the issue orientation is fastened by the by the emotional preference, which indeed reveals the growing tension between political controversies.

3.Among the five factors afore-said, the candidate’s qualification is rather uique because of its negative correlation with most other factors except for the issue and emotion. And the companion of the two factors od candidate’s qualification and of issue and emotion as seen in their positive correlation is thus becoming the best indicator to explain the mainspring of the voting behavior of Taipei electorate. It is also worth while to note that the positive correlation between the factors of social relations and of conformity indicates the very nature of the non-political orientation of Taipei voters as well.

全文下載:連結

中共與蘇俄關係的回顧與展望

The Prospect for Peiping-Moscow Relations

李登科

政治學報;11期 (1983/12) P103-135

關鍵字:(無)

中文摘要

(本刊使用科技部人社中心期刊數位傳播計畫經費送譯)
在1960年代初公開分裂前,中共和蘇聯是很親近的盟友,在1950年代保持著密切的關係。1950年二月中蘇友好同盟互助條約的簽署及兩個共產政權的結盟,被美國和其他西方國家視為對於世界和平穩定的嚴重威脅。然而,中共與蘇聯的蜜月不如一些學者所預期的持續演進。在1962年之後,兩國公開譴責彼此,關係惡化。隨之,在1969年三月,於珍寶島爆發血腥的邊界衝突。
珍寶島事件為蘇聯和中共一系列衝突中的頂峰。該事件也是中共與蘇聯關係之分水嶺。在該事件後,雙方改變外交政策,試圖孤立對方。因此,為數眾多的西方學者堅稱這兩個共產黨巨頭間的紛爭將很難解決。1979年中共對於中蘇友好同盟互助條約的終止,以及中共對於所謂中共與蘇聯關係正常化的三個條件之堅持更加深此等看法。故此,對許多西方學者而言,中共在1982年十月願意與蘇聯重啟直接對話是完全出乎意料的。其中有一些學者立即改變先前的觀點,開始聲稱兩個共產政權的和好近在眼前。
中共和蘇聯是否有任何可能重修舊好?若否,重啟直接對話的重要性是什麼?為何在蘇聯甚至未能滿足中共三個關係正常化條件的狀況下,中共決定與蘇聯舉行會談?在前兩輪會談中,阻礙和進展是什麼?最後,這兩個國家關係之展望如何?在檢視過這些重要的問題後,本文作者作出對話的重啟,在很大程度上,是被兩個共產政權用來試圖促進自身利益的外交策略一結論。本文作者也認為在現今的中共和蘇聯談判中,妥協的可能性極微。不過他們極為可能將會改善雙邊關係,尤其在貿易關係和文化交流上。儘管如此,似乎可以肯定地說,即使雙方願意將邊境問題擱置,也無法預期兩個共產國家間會有重大突破。然而,重要的是要謹記如果美國和其他西方國家害怕失去「中國這張牌」,提供更多更佳的經濟與軍事援助予中共,他們只將落入中共的圈套中。

英文摘要:

Before their open split in the early 1960 ’s, Communists China and Soviet Union were close allies and had maintained intimate relations in the 1950’s. The signing of the “Sino-Soviet”treaty of alliance in February 1950 and the joining of the two Communist powers, were perceived by the U.S and other Western countries as a great threat to world peace and stability. However, the Peiping-Moscow honeymoon did not continue to evolve as some scholars expended. After 1962, the two countries openly denounced each other and relations deteriorated. Then, in March 1969, a bloody border confrontation broke out at Chenpao Island.

The Chenpao Island Incident was the climax of a series of confrontations between the Soviet Union and Communist China. It was also a wastershed for Peiping-Moscow relations. After the incident, both sides changed their foreign policy in an attempt to isolate each other. As a result, a large number of Western scholars maintained that the dispute between the two Communists giants would be very difficult to resolve. The termination of the“Sino-Soviet Alliance”by Peiping in 1979 and Peiping’s insistence of the so-called three conditions for normalization of relations between Communist China and the Soviet Union further reinforced such a belief. Thus Peiping’s willingness to resume direct talks with Moscow in October 1982 cames as a total surprise to many Western scholars. A few of that the rapprochement between the two Communist powers was imminents.

Is there any possibility of a rapprochement between Peiping and Moscow? If not, what was the significance of the resumption of direct talks? Why did Peiping decide to hold talks with Moscow when Moscow had not even met Peiping’s three conditions for normalization? What were the obstacles and progress in the last two round of talks? And, finally, what are the prospects for the two countries’relations? Having examined these important questions, this writer concludes that the resumption of talks is largely a diplomatic strategy used by the two Communist powers in an attempt to advance their own interests. This writer also believes that there is little possibility of reconciliation in the current Peiping-Moscow negotiations. But it is very possible that they will improve their bilateral relations, particularly in trade ties and cultural exchanges. However, It seems safe to say that even if both sides are willing to put the boundary issue aside, no breakthrough is expected between the two Communist countries. Nevertheless it is important to remember that if the U.S and other Western countries, afraid of losing the “China card”, offer more and better economic and military aid to Communist China, they will only be falling into Peiping’s trap.

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