不只是茶壺裡的風暴?初選分歧的大選效應

Not Merely a Storm in a Teacup? The Electoral Effect of the Primary Division

楊婉瑩(Wan-Ying Yang)

政治學報;70期 (2020/12) P121 - 155

關鍵字:選舉預期 ; 初選分歧 ; 現任者優勢 ; 政黨優勢 ; 嚇阻與磁吸 ; Electoral Prospect ; Primary Division ; Incumbency Advantage ; Party Stronghold Advantage ; Deterrence and Magnetization

中文摘要

政黨提名階段的黨內分歧對於大選有何影響?本研究認為兩者之間存在連動的關係,對大選的「選舉預期」將會影響政黨提名時的「黨內分歧」,而提名的「黨內分歧」連帶影響了大選結果。「選舉預期」指的是大選勝算機會的心理推估,乃是連結並同時影響初選黨內競爭以及大選黨際競爭的關鍵因素。選舉預期由兩個因素構成,包括「現任者優勢」對黨內競爭的嚇阻效果,以及選區「政黨優勢」對黨內競爭的磁吸效果,這兩種不同原因導致的黨內競爭,都對大選有著正向的影響。本研究分析第八、第九兩屆立委選舉之政黨提名與大選資料,發現兩大政黨在提名階段的黨內分歧受到不同因素影響,而對大選產生不同作用。對國民黨而言,現任者從初選到大選似乎並無明顯的「選舉預期」優勢,也沒有產生「嚇阻」黨內分歧的效果;反之,政黨的選區優勢則有著「選舉預期」優勢,既刺激了初選的黨內競爭,也提高大選的得票率。相對地,民進黨的現任者具有「選舉預期」優勢,有效嚇阻黨內競爭,較少面對黨內挑戰;而在大選階段,未被黨內挑戰的現任者(選舉預期優勢)相對於面對黨內挑戰的現任者(選舉預期劣勢),在得票上亦處於相對優勢。由本研究的理論推論與資料分析結果可見,政黨提名階段的黨內競爭,絕對不僅止於黨內的風暴,更是預示著大選競爭的諸多玄機密碼。

英文摘要:

What is the impact of the primary division on the electoral outcome? This study argues that these two exist the linking causal relationship. The electoral prospect affects the primary division (intraparty competition), and the primary division affects the electoral outcomes. The electoral prospect, the psychological calculation on the winning prospect of the election, links and affects the primary division and the electoral outcome. And the electoral prospect was composed of two elements-the incumbency advantage deterring the primary division and the party stronghold magnetizing the primary division, combined together lead to positive electoral outcomes. Analyzing the primary and electoral data of the 8th and the 9th term legislative election, this study finds that the intraparty and interparty competition of the two major parties were affected by different factors in the primary and the final election. For the Kuomintang (KMT), the incumbents not having winning electoral prospect, neither deter the intraparty competition nor win over the interparty election. By contrast, the party strongholds with the winning electoral prospect increase the intraparty competition and lead to the electoral victory. For the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the incumbents with higher winning electoral prospect, deter the primary division and have a higher chance of winning the election compared to those incumbents with lower winning electoral prospect and facing primary divisions. Inferring from the theories and data analyses, the primary competition and division during the party nomination is not merely a storm in a teacup, it actually connotes a mysterious code for the electoral interparty competition.

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國際關係建構主義理論發展的世代危機或轉機:十字路口或死巷?

The Generational Crises and Opportunities of International Relations Constructivism's Development: Crossroad or Cul-de-Sac?

莫大華(Ta-Hua Mo)

政治學報;70期 (2020/12) P77 - 119

關鍵字:建構主義 ; 新建構主義 ; 實踐理論 ; 關係主義 ; 世代對話 ; Constructivism ; New Constructivism ; Practice Theory ; Relationalism ; Generational Dialogue

中文摘要

1980年代末期建構主義理論迅速崛起成為國際關係學科既有核心理論正式認證的競爭者,歷經30年的發展也面臨停滯、危機與困境,將會走向十字路口或死巷?尤其國際關係理論整體研究正歷經國際關係研究的「實證科學性」與「理論終結」的爭論,建構主義的理論發展停滯正是國際關係理論此整體研究與發展的縮影,遂有不同世代的建構主義學者嘗試以不同的觀點尋求轉機突破困境,其中第三代學者提議「新建構主義」,引發不同世代學者之間的爭論與對話。藉此反思建構主義在後設理論、實質理論、經驗研究及理論本身等方面的可能方向,再造建構主義的未來發展。

英文摘要:

Since the late of 1980s, constructivism has risen rapidly as the officially accredited contender to the established core of the international relations (IR). In the three decades, it has become a common approach in IR, as time go by, it faced stagnations, crisis, and paradoxes, toward to a crossroad or cul-de-sac? Particularly, the research of international relations is experiencing the debates of "the science of positivism" and of "the end of theory," the stagnations of constructivism is a miniature of the debates. Different generations of constructivists tried to find opportunities with various perspectives for breaking through the paradoxes, including in meta-theory, substantial theory, empirical research, and constructivism itself for recreating the future of constructivism.

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Partnership on the Ice? Power Politics and Economic Engagement in Sino-Russian Arctic Diplomacy 冰雪奇盟?中俄關係與北極外交之政治經濟分析

Partnership on the Ice? Power Politics and Economic Engagement in Sino-Russian Arctic Diplomacy

冷則剛(Tse-Kang Leng) , 趙竹成(Zhu-Cheng Zhao)

政治學報;70期 (2020/12) P1 - 39

關鍵字:Arctic Diplomacy ; Chinese Foreign Policy ; Sino-Russian Relations ; Northern Sea Route ; 北極外交 ; 北方航道 ; 中俄關係 ; 中國外交政策

中文摘要

The purpose of this article is to clarify the myth and reality of the Sino-Russian alliance in the Arctic region. The authors argue that such interactions have to be put in the general framework of grand strategies of the two countries. We argue that structural factors, especially the new containment strategies adopted by the United States, help promote a closer partnership between China and Russia. However, it is the domestic context, such as historical memories and mutual distrust, that limit the scope and directions of Sino-Russia relationship. Economic benefits of collective development serve as a catalyst for cooperation. However, historical legacies and a lack of mutual trust constrain the formation of a formal alliance between China and Russia. A formal alliance between the two countries appears to be unrealistic. The Chinese may adopt multi-lateral diplomacy to strengthen ties with Nordic countries and undertake joint efforts of collective development in the Arctic region. The Russian side will also consolidate international cooperation on Arctic development.

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「雙重中心」的邊陲地區:比較金門、香港與澳門「國族認同」的建構因素

A Periphery of "Dual Centers": Comparing the Construction Factors of "Nationality" in Kinmen, Hong Kong, and Macao

林政緯(Zheng-Wei Lin) , 陳建民(Chien-Min Chen)

政治學報;70期 (2020/12) P41 - 75

關鍵字:環境保護 ; 環境汙染 ; 兩岸協議 ; 協商 ; 兩岸關係 ; environmental protection ; environmental pollution ; Cross-Strait agreement ; negotiation ; Cross-Strait Relations

中文摘要

透過雙重中心下的邊陲概念與歷史比較途徑,本文討論並解釋金門、澳門、香港三地居民的政治認同,特別是國族認同的程度為何會有異同。在自變項上,本文以雙重中心的國力/文化影響力大小對比,以及該地議會的功能作為解釋的因素,而將金門、澳門與香港,分別定位為「體制內的中國人認同」、「體制外的中國人認同」,以及「體制內的本地認同」等三個模式。本文對於解釋三地的中國認同差異,試圖結合國家綜合國力與國內的議會政治,提出一個更具備比較性的解釋框架。

英文摘要:

Through the concept of peripheral areas under the "Double Center" and historical comparison, this article discusses and explains the identity of the residents in Kinmen, Macao, and Hong Kong, especially the different degrees of their national identity. In terms of independent variable, this article uses the Double Center's national strength and the institutionalization of the local council as explanatory factors, and position Kinmen as "Chinese identity within the system," Macao as "Chinese identity outside the system," and Hong Kong as "Local identity within the system." Through the comparative analysis, we can clarify the historical development and the outlines of the three cases more clearly, which could contribute to relevant researches.

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