東北亞權力結構的變動下南、北韓軍事安全對峙與外交角力(2012~2016)

Military Security Conflict and Diplomatic Rivalry between North and South Korea in the Changes of Power Structure in Northeast Asia from 2012 to 2016

河凡植(Bum-Sig Ha)

政治學報;64期 (2017/12) P1 - 22

關鍵字:外交角力 , 北韓核武戰略, 軍事安全對峙 , 南韓北韓政策 , 新古典現實主義 , Diplomatic Rivalry, Military Security Conflict, Neoclassical Realism , North Korea's Nuclear Strategy , South Korea's Policy towards North Korea

中文摘要

本論文採用新古典現實主義概念,探討2012~2016年兩韓安全競逐與其對外交政策的影響。從新古典現實主義觀點來看,金正恩的核武戰略與朴槿惠的外交政策皆是受到東北亞國際權力體系的壓力與國內層次的因素而採取。對北韓而言,國際體系的壓力是指東北亞相對權力分布變動,北韓在兩韓安全競爭上處於劣勢狀態,加上南韓保守政府與具超強軍事實力的美國採取敵對北韓政策;國內層次的因素為金正恩採取並進路線,且將其作為國家推動經濟開發與強化防禦力的指針,藉此爭取軍隊與人民的信任與忠誠,凝聚北韓內部的團結,穩定其政權,並為了實現並進路線的目的,展開強硬外交與全方位外交政策。對南韓而言,東北亞國際權力體系的壓力是指北韓強化核武的非常規武器力量威脅南韓國家安全,國內層次的因素為保守派政府在兩韓問題上將安全作為優先考量,對北韓政策強調警惕態度,保持北韓先放棄核武再推動雙方交流的態度,為了施壓北韓,南韓外交戰略從「聯美和中」轉換為「盟美牽中」,引進「薩德」。南、北韓之間的安全對峙,不僅加劇朝鮮半島局勢的不確定性,兩韓的外交角力也受到中美角力與美日外交關係等東北亞國際體系因素的限制,無法取得外交成果。

英文摘要:

This paper explores the military security rivalry between North and South Korea, and its impact on their diplomatic policies during the period of 2012 ~ 2016. From the perspective of neoclassical realism, the nuclear strategy of Kim Jong-un and the diplomatic policy of Park Geun-hye are in response to the pressure from the power shift in Northeast Asia and their respective domestic concerns. For North Korea, the pressure at the regional level refers to its inferiority in the regional power structure, especially when South Korea's conservative government takes a hostile position and enhances its political and military ties with the U.S. At the domestic level, Kim Jongun adopts the so-called parallel policy roadmap which aims at winning trust and loyalty of the army and the people. For South Korea, North Korea's nuclear strategy threatens security of South Korea, and domestically, the conservatives urge the North Korea to abandon its nuclear strategy prior to opening channels for communication. In response, South Korea has shifted its diplomatic strategy from uniting with the U.S. and China to aligning with the U.S. against China, even by equipping THAAD. In addition, the diplomatic rivalry between China and the U.S. and the complexity of power relations in Northeast Asia have exacerbated the security uncertainty in the Korean Peninsula.

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以西漢前期對胡越之行動檢視攻勢現實主義

Examining Offensive Realism by the Early Western Han's Action toward Hu and Yue

唐欣偉(Hsin-wei Tang) ; 唐豪駿(Hao-Chun Tang)

政治學報;64期 (2017/12) P23 - 39

關鍵字:物質實力, 現實主義 , 道家思想 , 權力政治, Daoism , Material Capabilities, Power Politics, Realism

中文摘要

西漢前期國力逐漸增長,從韜光養晦轉變成主動對外征伐,可能被視為支持攻勢現實主義的一個例證,從而使人擔心今日中國會否走上同樣道路。本文於檢視西漢案例後,發現其統治者未必如攻勢現實主義者所稱是在尋求物質權力的極大化。西漢曾與相對弱勢的越人和平共存了約九十年。「無為而治」的觀念有助於漢朝政治菁英避免戰爭,而武帝對匈奴開戰也可以用守勢現實主義者尋求安全的理由來解釋。因此西漢的案例未必全然支持攻勢現實主義。

英文摘要:

As the national capabilities grew during the early period, the Western Han Dynasty transferred its "hidden light" low-profile policy toward aggressively attacking foreign enemies. It could be considered as a confirmative case to support offensive realism. Some even worry if China would follow the same path today. However, this paper suggests that Han rulers did not necessarily aim at maximizing material power, as offensive realists argue. In contrast, the Western Han peacefully coexisted with weaker Yue people for about ninety years. With the help of the "laissez-faire" ideology, Han elites managed to avoid war. We argue that the Wu Di's war against Hiongnu could be better explained by the concept of security maximization suggested in the defensive realism. Thus, Western Han's case does not fully confirm offensive realism.

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中國與土耳其新地緣政治經濟關係下之合作

Cooperation under China and Turkey's New Geo- Political and Economic Relations

吳雪鳳(Sheue-Feng Wu) ; 曾怡仁(Yi-Ren Dzeng)

政治學報;64期 (2017/12) P41 - 74

關鍵字:一帶一路, 土耳其, 中國 , 地緣戰略 , 競合策略, China , Co-Opetition , Geopolitical Strategies, One Belt One Road , Turkey

中文摘要

對於中國「一帶一路」戰略而言,土耳其可成為其陸路及海路兩大戰略的主要連結點,具有連結中亞、中東及歐洲三大地區的地緣樞紐位置,是中國可以逐步擴張在此區域影響力的戰略要點,特別是抗衡美國防患中國崛起的全球戰略。反觀,土耳其近來欲將其國家打造成能源的網絡中心,藉由「中間走廊」計劃,提升為經濟大國並厚實土耳其在歐亞大陸的影響力,進而取得影響國際事務的重要地位。對此,中國的「一帶一路」地緣戰略正是土耳其可以借助之力。然而,縱使中國與土耳其有共同的地緣戰略利益,但由於過去中、土兩國的產業結構過於相似,彼此的關係可說是競爭大於合作。因此,中、土如何在競爭中擴展合作關係,為兩國創造互惠機會,締造雙贏的局面,值得深入研究。本文將以國際關係中的地緣政治學理論結合經濟學與管理學中的競合策略理論視角,來探討中國與土耳其在新地緣政治經濟框架下所進行之合作關係。

英文摘要:

Located in the geopolitical pivot position among Central Asia, Middle East and Europe, Turkey is a crucial connecting point for China's land and sea routes in the One Belt One Road strategies (OBOR). From Turkey's perspective, cooperation with China can help it to realize the goal of being an energy hub in Eurasia through its Middle Corridor Plan. Nevertheless, even with shared geopolitical and strategic interests, the similar economic structure of China and Turkey have led their relationship to more competition than cooperation. Would it be possible for China and Turkey to expand their cooperative relation within their competition and create a reciprocal opportunity for a win-win situation? This article tries to answer this question through the geopolitical theory of international relations and cooperation-competition theory of economics and management.

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儒家文化、軟權力與霸權抉擇:清初的案例研究(1676~1735)

Confucian Culture, Soft Power, and Hegemony: A Case Study of the Early Qing Dynasty (1676 ~ 1735)

楊仕樂(Shih-Yueh Yang)

政治學報;64期 (2017/12) P75 - 103

關鍵字:武力使用, 建構主義 , 軟權力 , 儒家文化, 霸權 , Confucian Culture , Constructivism , Hegemon , Soft Power , Use of Force

中文摘要

中國崛起是當代國際關係中深受矚目的焦點,中國在東亞崛起為霸權之後,會怎麼行事?以在北美洲的美國此一霸權為例,霸權的最佳策略會是「軟權力」,透過對武力使用的自我克制,來誘使他國自願的服從。就此而言,在清朝鼎盛的乾隆時期,也有相似的行為模式。不過,這並不是說霸權就必然奉行「軟權力」邏輯,中國在不同朝代的鼎盛時期,雖然都是東亞的霸權,行為模式並不相同。相對於唐朝、元朝,清朝對武力使用的自我克制程度是明顯較高。這樣的差異是否是文化所致?就算物質力量驅使霸權奉行「軟權力」邏輯,清朝所採納的儒家思想是否有助於他順應此一趨力?本文以清初對俄羅斯與準噶爾的戰爭為例進行研究,從中顯示儒家文化確實有這樣的作用。

英文摘要:

The rise of China has been the focus of contemporary international relations. After China achieves hegemony in East Asia, how will China act? Taking U.S. hegemony in North America as an example, "soft power" seems to be the best choice for a hegemon. It induces voluntary compliance form other countries through self-restraint on the use of force. Nevertheless, hegemons do not necessarily adopt the "soft power" logic. In history, China had achieved hegemony in East Asia for many times, but its behavioral patterns were not consistent. Indeed, the heyday of Qing, in contrast to the Tang and Yuan dynasties, had a similar behavioral pattern with the U.S. This article studies China's two wars with Russia and Junggar in the early Qing period and finds that Qing's embrace of Confucian culture contributes to its adoption of the "soft power" logic.

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